Data is King: How Analytics are Revolutionizing Fantasy Sports Strategy (For Some)

The popularity of Fantasy Sports leagues like Pick6 have been steadily rising in recent years. The decision to strike down PASPA by the Supreme Court and thus start the slow march toward sports betting legalisation has, inadvertently, opened many casual sports fans eyes to the idea of Fantasy Sports.

If you’re a seasoned fantasy coach that can be seen both negatively and positively. The negative being that there is an increased level of competition for the top prizes. The positive that there are a lot of inexperienced coaches out there to get the upper hand on.

The easiest and by far the most effective way to get the upper hand on casual coaches and even plenty of seasoned ones, is to effectively use and interpret data. When the film Moneyball (based on the excellent book of the same name) was released in 2011, there was a huge uptick in data and analytics use across the professional game.

That filtered down to Fantasy Sports too, but for whatever reason, data analytics is no longer in vogue with fantasy coaches. Once again though, that’s not strictly a negative. In fact it’s something that could give you the edge, especially if you use the following tools that your opponents are missing out on:

Predictive Modelling

Let’s start with the most effective but also most difficult data optimization strategy to use – predictive modelling or machine learning. To take advantage of this strategy you are going to have to be relatively proficient in Python and have a more than basic understanding of computing.

If you don’t have the latter and have no idea why we have referenced a snake as if it were a language, skip on to the next part. If you understand the following joke then predictive modelling is for you!

>>> from_future_import braces

Traceback (most recent call last):

SyntaxError: not a chance (python, line 1)

Right, down to the basics. To utilise machine learning and predictive modelling, scrape the data you want to interpret and use Python and sckit-learn to work out an algorithm such as Linear Regression (for more information on this which we can’t cover in as much detail here, click this link).

Linear Regression alone, with the right inputs, has been shown through studies to increase fantasy sports points’ performance by 80%. So if you have the tools and knowledge to understand predictive modelling, it’s well worth exploring.

Player Projections

If everything covered in the previous couple of paragraphs was unintelligible, or if it simply sounds like too much effort, what you can do is look at someone else’s homework. Almost every major outlet that discusses fantasy sports has someone within their organisation tasked with carrying out predictive modelling.

Whilst someone else’s working will never allow you the detail and customisation that you would get from doing your own research, it can still be an invaluable tool. There are a myriad of different resources out there but our most recommended would be Stats Perform.

Advanced Statistics

Professional scouts often refer to ‘eye test’, which is their statistical safety net. We are all familiar with the concept of watching a player struggle and toil on the field only to return home and see that statistically, he was one of the team’s best performers.

This phenomena occurs because basic level stats are often misleading. In soccer for example, a player can score two penalties and, on the surface level look to have had an amazing game. Aside from those moments though he might have been diabolically lazy and hid every time his team got the ball.

In that case, he wouldn’t have passed the ‘eye test’. If you can’t be at the game yourself and put into place the eye test though, what can you do to avoid falling victim to misleading statistics? Research Advanced Statistics!

To stick with the example used above, advanced statistics such as, non-penalty xG, pass completion rate and the player’s positional heat map would all give you a far greater idea of how the player actually performed on pitch.

In possession of these stats you’d be able to confidently say that, barring the penalties which provided him with an 80% chance of scoring, the striker had a woeful game. Whatever your sport is, there are advanced statistics that allow you to perform the eye test on players. Make use of them.

If you do that and if you make use of one of the two previously mentioned tactics, you will find yourself performing far better in your fantasy league.

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